AS the world moves on its collision course with nature, humankind is about to witness a period like none other in the history of its existence. Standing at the crossroads of survival and extinction, humanity faces its darkest dilemma.

Should it continue to exploit, degrade and destroy nature in its quest for development and perish in the process, or should it seize this moment to make a new pact with the future to live in peace, harmony, justice and equity to ensure the survival of the human race?

Climate Stabilization: The fire lighted by Homo sapiens 300,000 years ago has moved from the hearth to the atmosphere with large-scale combustion of coal, oil and natural gas now threatening the climatic regime that supports life on earth. To keep the planet livable, countries must deliver on 40pc GHG emissions cut in their NDCs by 2030 and achieve the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. Anything short of that will jeopardize the delicate planetary balance and unleash chaos and catastrophe at a scale never witnessed before by humanity.

Historical Context: Fifty-two years ago, the Stockholm Convention recognized the threat of chemicals that remain in the environment long enough to get widely distributed geographically with harmful effect on human and wildlife.

Two decades later, world leaders gathered at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 to discuss the interlinked challenges of climate change, land and biodiversity, resulting in three separate global agreements; the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). The concept behind these agreements was to ensure that action on land, climate and biodiversity always work together to restore the Earth’s balance with nature.

The main objective of the UNFCCC multilateral environmental agreement was “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement built on the convention. The Conference of Parties (COP) convened under the UNFCCC serves as the supreme decision-making body of the climate change process with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) at the core of climate action, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the most important source of scientific, technical and socioeconomic information on climate change for UNFCCC.

COP Negotiations: The year 2024 was a triple COP year that provided the world with a unique opportunity for galvanizing global action to control the climate crisis. However, all three COPs fell short of expectation and failed to build critical momentum to address the triple planetary crisis. COP29 (UNFCCC) held in Baku, Azerbaijan, was unable to get a $1.3 trillion commitment for the New Collective Quantified Goal to meet the demands of developing nations. The $300bn agreement left participants dissatisfied with the outcome and disillusioned with the multilateral system.

COP16, (UNCCD) held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, could not bring all negotiators to agree on its proposal of creating the first legally binding treaty for action on drought, land degradation and desertification. Ending in disappointment, COP16 (CBD) held in Cali, Colombia, failed to meet finance agreement, with developed countries lagging behind on their commitment to provide $20 billion annually in international biodiversity financing by 2025.

According to the IPCC, without stricter policies, the world is on track for a temperature rise between 2.1ºC and 3.6ºC by 2050. The dire consequences can result in sea level rise of up to 100cm, a nine-fold increase in drought frequency, and 30pc increase in extreme weather events.

Tackling Climate Challenges: As we enter the era of shock and distress, with more than half the global population struggling to cope with a crisis that is not of their making, it is time to accept disorder as the new order. It is also time to read the writing on the wall and recognize that when survival is at stake, self-preservation takes precedence over morality. The global order that held for the first 30 years after the Cold War is fraying, sending political shockwaves across continents. Every nation will feel the heat of change and the need to realign with the emerging political demands of domestic and foreign policy imperatives.

From Global To Local: Living in an economically connected world makes it impossible to divorce country circumstances from developments in other parts of the world. The last year saw scores of elections with majority results showing rejection of incumbency and a vote for change. The preference for right-wing politicians selling exclusive narratives with inward focus, signals the beginning of a new era in politics.

Pakistan, too, will need to reconfigure its strategy to cope with the new disorderly order. As a country with a large population, stark disparities in income, a bulging youth cohort, shrinking resources, a struggling economy, heavy debt burdens and high on the vulnerability index, Pakistan will have to quickly reach a safe level of macro-fiscal stability to cope with climate shocks.

National Circumstance: Pakistan is a signatory to the Paris Agreement and therefore bound by the terms and conditions of the treaty. It is also a low-emitter country that is routinely high on the vulnerability index. While some vulnerabilities can be attributed to factors other than climate change, the fact that global warming is aggravating and accelerating the crisis is irrefutable.

Currently, Pakistan is going through one of the most turbulent periods in its history. The new trend of populism in politics is deepening political divide and polarizing society along radical lines, making the country brittle, the populace angry, and governance difficult. The downward trajectory of the economy is adding to the volatile mix with climate change compounding the crisis at all levels. As a non-traditional threat climate change hits at the very heart of human security shaking the foundation on which life is built. Addressing this challenge will require a complete review of the governance approach and resetting the agenda to address priority issues.

Water Availability: Water remains the fundamental building block for resilience. It poses the gravest risk to human and national security in Pakistan. Straddling a strategic geographical location places the country in an arc of vulnerability. The topographic range that stretches from the cryosphere to the coast makes the task of coping with climate more challenging. Living in a conflicted neighborhood as a lower riparian with a single river system that draws its water from transboundary snow and ice melt, and relies on irrigated agriculture further compounds the problem.

The Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush mountains are a common source of water for five countries in South Asia (Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan). Climate-triggered disruption in the cyclic flow of river waters can result in disaster; with too much resulting in floods, and too little causing drought.

As we enter the era of shock and distress, with more than half the global population struggling to cope with a crisis that is not of their making, it is time to accept disorder as the new order. It is also time to read the writing on the wall and recognise that when survival is at stake, self-preservation takes precedence over morality.

Cryosphere Balance: The cryosphere provides meltwater for over two billion people who depend on glacier-fed rivers for water, agriculture and hydropower. Its global impact extends beyond mountain and polar regions to sea level rise. The Third Pole glaciers cover 100,000sqkm, containing 30,000-47000 cubic km of ice. Pakistan occupies a vast cryospheric space with the largest and densest glaciers making it an important part of the Third Pole. This winter the Hindukush-Himalaya (HKH) region saw record low snowfall, threatening water supply across South Asia.

Regional Dynamics: Water is a shared resource and therefore must be viewed as a global common. Every country in the region is an upper or lower riparian state with an interconnected mountain system that serves as a source of meltwater for 270 million people directly. Even under an optimistic climate change scenario, all regional countries will have to do more with less water in future which makes starting a conversation on hydro-solidarity an urgent topic in climate diplomacy. The geopolitics of water will soon overtake oil and energy as a fundamental resource, making water functions a vital economic enabler that can trigger volatility in commodity markets, drive inflation and disrupt global supply chains.

The future resilience of Pakistan pivots around water. Both surface and groundwater are under acute stress and require investments to ensure availability and improve efficiency. The availability of water is not just an environmental concern but a force capable of fundamentally reshaping economic power and geopolitical dynamics making it a central piece in the climate puzzle.

Food and Agriculture: Half of the world’s food production is at risk of failure by 2050 due to the global water crisis. Hunger is on the rise in Pakistan. The agriculture sector that accounts for 21pc of the GDP and employs over 60pc of the population is under threat from climate change. The mismatch between cropping patterns and water efficiency combined with reduced soil fertility is indicative of need for change. Currently, four major crops account for 80pc water, and contribute less than 5pc to the GDP. A shift towards resilience will require catalyzing growth in the rural economy, adopting regenerative practices in agriculture and boosting productivity and exports.

Energy Transition: Energy remains the single largest drain on the country’s economy. The current mix is high on fossils fuels with an estimated transition cost of $101bn by 2030 contingent on external finance. The power intensive private sector needs to take more responsibility for increasing efficiency and lowering emissions. Pakistan’s energy challenge is related more to cost and less to GHG emissions making transitioning to renewables both cost effective and good for the environment.

Disaster Risks: Sitting on the frontline of climate-induced hydrometeorological disasters, Pakistan has paid a high cost for its minimal GHG contribution. Between floods triggered by accelerated melting and drastic changes in precipitation patterns, the brunt borne by Pakistan has reversed hard-earned gains in development and significantly undermined its capacity to meet SDGs targets. The floods of 2022 that affected 33 million people and inflicted loss and damage worth $30million also had a destabilizing dimension resulting from large-scale displacement of people that in future can trigger turf wars between host and migrant communities over scarce resources.

Health, Poverty And Productivity: With 40pc rate of stunting, 18 million facing acute food security and 40pc living below the poverty line, the climate challenge in Pakistan is fast becoming a threat multiplier, pushing millions deeper into an intergenerational poverty trap. The impact of heat, disease, and reduced employment opportunity will lower productivity and increase poverty by 8.4pc by 2050 under a pessimistic scenario.

Science, Technology And Innovation: Living in a world driven by technology that uses science for informed decision-making and innovation to open new frontiers, Pakistan’s laggard pace has made it fall behind in the race. As the world embarks on a new age of machine learning for scaling economies, late-comer countries will lose the competitive edge to remain relevant in the job market.

Population, Human Capital And Gender: The benefits of the direct correlation between population size, human capital and role of gender in society have not been optimized by Pakistan. Its resilience to climate change is challenged by demographic pressure, low investment in human capital and limited access and opportunity for women in society.

Governance, Capacity And Resources: The institutional arrangement in Pakistan after the 18th Amendment to the Constitution has devolved powers to the provinces. However, the climate governance mechanism for coordination remains nebulous and weak, hindering progress. Beyond capacity, finance and improved coordination, the provinces also need support to develop Provincially Determined Contributions (PDCs) with GHG inventories and mitigation plans to help Pakistan meet its NDC 3.0 targets.

Legislative And Judicial Oversight: Climate change is now recognized as a human rights issue that requires a more proactive role by the legislature and oversight by the judiciary to ensure constitutional compliance for a rule-based society. Both need to step up their role as custodians of law and justice.

One South Asia: South Asia is a landmass connected by land, air and water where disruption in one ecosystem will derail the ecological balance of the entire region. Siloed efforts will therefore not yield desired results, and building resilience will require collective action and sustained engagement. Regional climate collaboration is not just about the ecology and the environment, it is an investment in humanity and the preservation of an ancient culture and civilization that has profound historical relevance.

The dysfunctional relationship history between Pakistan and India has held the region hostage for over seven decades. However, under a fast-changing landscape, historical strategies will need to be reviewed to accommodate the looming climate crisis. This shift is not going to be easy, but political constraints can be overcome through muted cooperation and tacit understanding to address each issue separately, while remaining flexible to tap segmented cooperative opportunities as they arise.

In a dynamic world, stagnant positions and conventional strategies that lack foresight, agility and nimbleness to adapt will be outpaced by countries who think big, bold and beyond ideological boundaries to embrace new partnerships for economic growth and political outreach.

The year 2025 offers South Asia a unique opportunity to utilize the “year of glacier preservation” by lobbying together to make the cryosphere a part of the global stock to stabilize the Third Pole with the ultimate ambition of hosting a South Asia Region (SAR) COP to develop a climate resilience roadmap for South Asia.

Pathway To Resilience: In a world marked by shifting alliances, climate crisis, growing interdependence and exciting and alarming breakthroughs in technology, cooperation has never been more important or more challenging.

Climate resilience does not take place in isolation. It is a combination of factors that require graduated adaptation to a constantly evolving world order. If resilience is the capacity to absorb shocks and bounce back, then Pakistan’s current status is fragile. Pakistan has not kept pace with social, economic and technological developments, thereby eroding its overall capacity to cope with crises including climate.

The demand for external finance may provide a brief respite, but is not the answer to the polycrisis. The long-term solution lies in Pakistan’s ability to develop a bold political consensus for transformative change to reimagine a new future with a pivot shift in governance, economy, domestic and foreign policy and social power dynamics. Currently, some of the structural factors hindering resilience include high debt burdens, limited fiscal space, weak investments and low productivity. Climate change and geopolitical tensions are amplifying these risks.

To achieve resilience, Pakistan needs political stability, economic recovery, boosting investments in health, education, women, and, above all, by aligning policies with emerging geopolitical trends to anticipate, plan and position the country for leveraging current and future opportunities. Every fraction of increase in Fahrenheit is taking us one step closer to the dreaded tipping point. With time running out, Pakistan must build on the three pillars of peace, stability and economic growth to plot its pathway to resilience.

The writer is Chief Executive of Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change, and can be reached at: aisha@csccc.org.pk.